MANNHEIM (dpa-AFX) – The economic expectations of German financial experts rose to their highest level in 20 years in September. As the Mannheim Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) announced on Tuesday, the indicator it collected rose by 5.9 points to 77.4 points. Analysts, on the other hand, had expected an average decrease to 69.5 points. The indicator was last higher in May 2000.
The assessment of the current economic situation has surprisingly improved significantly. The indicator rose by 15.1 points to minus 66.2 points. An increase to minus 72.0 points was expected here.
“This shows that the experts continue to expect a noticeable recovery in the German economy,” commented ZEW President Achim Wambach. “The stalled Brexit negotiations and the rising number of corona infections could not slow down the positive mood.” However, according to Wambach, the poor outlook for the banking sector points to fears of an increasing number of loan defaults in the next six months.
Bank economists were confident: “Overall, a strong economic recovery is indicated in the third quarter,” commented Ulrich Wortberb, economist at Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba). The numbers are also an indication of the Ifo business climate, which is due in the coming week.
In the Eurozone the development is similar to that in Germany. The indicator for expectations rose by 9.9 points to 73.9 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro area rose by 8.9 points to a value of minus 80.9 points.
The reaction on the financial markets was subdued. The prices of German government bonds fell slightly. The stock markets expanded their profits. The euro rate barely moved.
178 analysts and institutional investors took part in the survey from September 7-14. They were asked about their medium-term expectations with regard to economic and capital market developments. The economic expectations indicator shows the difference between positive and negative assessments of future economic development over a period of six months in Germany./jsl/bgf/men