Dear readers, at DAX 8,500 we had an offensive “go” for the market in your investment book in our Exchange service (by the way over the long weekend 2 weeks for testing, can be canceled at any time). This has significantly improved our and your depots. Now – 6 weeks later at 11,200 – we want to be your brake of euphoria. It is important to bring the fruits to safety and then in the second wave for the next 10! Years to set up. We set the course with you: for stocks, but also for gold in the short term. But with caution in the short term. There are 10 reasons for this and we want to explain:
1) The mood of US private investors is incredibly positive. The vast majority expect prices to rise one year from now. So usually no crash phases end.
2) The DAX was attractive at 8,500 points. At 11,000, it is not attractive at the moment given the situation
3) We see the short-term risk-reward ratio 40:60. At 8,500 it was 90:10 for us.
4) Crashes run in waves. The first wave came in 2008, then a strong second. This time it could be the other way around.
5) We get the biggest recession since World War II. Should it be appropriate that the Nasdaq is only 17% behind the already high top? With all love, that’s not enough
6) Volatility has halved from the top. The gold price is running as the US Federal Reserve pours an incredible amount of money into the market. But – QE programs always develop their strength on the market only 6-12 months after the start. Before it gets bumpy.
7) Fear and Greed shows some good mood again. We think – too early.
8) Shares like Wirecard gained around 40% from the low. This is a good measure of a handsome recovery. Starbucks etc. look similar. Disastrous company data will follow.
9) Gold is wanted. The central banks flood the markets with money. But – the curve of this soon flattens out. And – markets usually only start to increase massively a year later thanks to the flood of money.
10) The sentiment tilts. From now on negative surprises are possible again. Therefore – we fix your depot. Now – in the stock exchange letter.
Read the full article at “Feingold Research”