Developing scenarios is the be-all and end-all
Gnter Mller-Stewens is an emeritus professor of business administration and told WirtschaftsWoche that in times of uncertainty no precise plans could be made, but rather the options should be opened up. Making precise plans “requires predictions that are currently not possible.” It is therefore important now to “scenarios [zu] develop and create choices. ”
Because: According to Mller-Stewens, it is known from brain research that people who develop scenarios recognize what is to come faster than others – regardless of whether the developed scenarios come true. So it’s worth the effort.
“You have to carry out a permanent balance of goods”
According to Mller-Stewens, entrepreneurs have to constantly trade off economic damage and the welfare of their employees. A scenario development could help. When creating a scenario, it is important to include the ever new developments and to base them on various starting points such as the restriction of public life.
Fabian Sting, Professor of Business Administration, researches the risks in supply chains. He recommends to WirtschaftsWoche to differentiate between known and unknown uncertainties – and not only during Corona times: Known risks are, for example, existing political conflicts, but a virus is a sudden occurrence and therefore unknown. In the best case scenario, you should be armed against both uncertainties. He describes the problem of the Corona crisis with the words: “The greatest challenge is to find the balance between efficiency and flexibility.”
It will not be the same as it was before the crisis
People who, unlike entrepreneurs, are less affected by the effects of the measures should also give thought to their future. Because it is relatively certain that not everything will be the same as it was a few months ago. The Zukunftsinstitut presents four possible scenarios for the time after the crisis. These range from a “super-safe society” in which everyone is neighbors to themselves, through a permanent crisis mode, to a resilient society that learns from the crisis.
Michael Horx, founder of the institute, uses what is known as re-gnosis to look into the future. One puts oneself in a future point in time and looks back on the current present, thus observing the situation as objectively as possible. As he writes on his website, this creates a different kind of future awareness, which can lead to less dramatic forecasts.
If you listen to the experts, it becomes clear: Anyone planning for the future during Corona should definitely develop scenarios – otherwise failures are inevitable.
Finanzen.net editorial team
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