APA ots news: WIFO – forecast for 2020 to 2022: Compensation of high value added losses
Vienna (APA-ots) – The economy recovered in Austria in summer 2020
also extraordinarily strong in international comparison. The second
Lockdown depresses economic activity again in 2020, but – since the
Industry is less affected – weaker than the first. All in all
real GDP fell by 7.3% in 2020, and unemployment rose despite
the use of COVID-19 short-time work by a third. Without
further lockdown (“No Policy Change”), GDP should rise by 4.5% in 2021
grow, with a third lockdown of 2.5%. In particular the
Winter tourism is slowing down due to persistent travel warnings in the
upcoming season severely limited or canceled. First
in the warmer season and with the vaccination of the population
can view social and economic activities
normalize again. In any case, unemployment will remain in 2022
above pre-crisis levels.
“Due to persistent travel warnings, the catering industry will
and the hotel industry – the sectors with the highest losses to date – only
slowly recover. They would be special from a third lockdown
affected “, says the author of the current WIFO forecast Stefan Schiman.
The economic performance in Austria fell sharply in 2020. The
However, at 7.3% (forecast), the decline in GDP was less severe than
the circumstances of the last few weeks – the lockdown since the beginning
November in varying intensity – one might assume. In its
Forecast from the beginning of October, WIFO was already expecting a decline
by 6.8%. The relatively low forecast revision for 2020 has in
Two main causes:
* The recovery in summer was stronger than expected and was
measured by the depth of the previous break-in, including in
international comparison above average. The powerful rebound
was next to the generous relaxation of restriction measures
the COVID-19 pandemic also affects the expansionary economic policy
attributed to the household income and hence
consumer demand stabilized, as well as the rapid recovery of the
World trade, of which the foreign trade and subsequently the
Industrial production and investments benefited.
* The solid development of world trade also explains why the
Economy less from the second lockdown since November 2020
is affected than by the first. The international supply chains
were maintained, factories not closed and
supply-side production barriers in industry avoided. The
second lockdown mainly affects the
Service industries and therefore has lower
macroeconomic effects as the first.
Overview 1: Main results of the forecast – scenario “No Policy
Change “- on the [WIFO-Website]
Under the current framework conditions, the mean value of the
Forecast interval – contrary to the usual assumption – not that
Value with the highest probability of occurrence.
Rather, a bimodal forecast interval appears plausible, that is
a range with two likely outcomes: Either
the health policy framework conditions remain unchanged (“No.
Policy Change “), and in the first quarter of 2021 there will be a recovery from the
current lockdown. Or there will be another lockdown in the first quarter
imposed, so that a rebound will not set in until the second quarter, but
is relatively stronger:
* In the “Third Lockdown” scenario, there is a full lockdown
of four weeks from the end of January 2021 and one subsequent
partial lockdown until the end of March 2021 with still closed
Restaurants and hotels. This would result in GDP in the I.
Further decrease in the quarter of 2021, and the economic recovery would take off
delay. With the closure of the trade would be availment
of COVID-19 short-time working will increase again during the sudden end of the
Winter tourism season, especially seasonal unemployment
would temporarily increase.
* In the “No Policy Change” scenario without a third lockdown, the I.
A level jump in economic output can be expected in the first quarter of 2021, since
Companies that had to close for several weeks at the end of 2020 are back
would be active. On the one hand, this affects the retail sector, albeit
Some catch-up purchases are made before Christmas, on the other hand
gastronomy and, to a lesser extent, accommodation.
Accommodation companies would only lose a lot of value added
Compensate slowly, as travel warnings from important countries of origin
foreign guests from one up to and including February 2021
To hold vacation in Austria. The rebound would therefore decrease
the second lockdown will be weaker overall than after the
first or any third.
In the course of 2021, the rising ones are likely to be the first
Outside temperatures and in the second half of the year at the latest
Vaccination of the population again more social and thus
allow economic activity to return to normal
Enable social behavior and thus support the economic recovery.
On the basis of this assumption, for 2021 in the “No Policy Change” scenario
a GDP growth rate of 4.5% and in the “Third Lockdown” scenario
forecast of 2.5%. The loss of added value caused by the crisis
will not be compensated in both scenarios until 2022. The
Unemployment rate, which in 2020 despite wide utilization of the
COVID-19 short-time work rose by 2.5 percentage points to 9.9%, will be in 2021
decrease to 9.3% in both scenarios. The budget deficit is likely to be
around 10% of GDP in 2021 to around 5.5% (“No Policy Change” scenario)
and 6.2% (“Third Lockdown” scenario) decrease.
For definitions see [“Methodische Hinweise und Kurzglossar”]
Please send any queries to Stefan Schiman, MSc, Tel. (1) 798 26 01 – 234, firstname.lastname@example.org by 3 p.m. on Friday, December 18, 2020
Digital press kit: http://www.ots.at/pressemappe/235/aom
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OTS0090 2020-12-18 / 10: 30