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APA ots news: WIFO – forecast for 2020 to 2022: Compensation of high … | message

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APA ots news: WIFO – forecast for 2020 to 2022: Compensation of high value added losses

Vienna (APA-ots) – The economy recovered in Austria in summer 2020

also extraordinarily strong in international comparison. The second

Lockdown depresses economic activity again in 2020, but – since the

Industry is less affected – weaker than the first. All in all

real GDP fell by 7.3% in 2020, and unemployment rose despite

the use of COVID-19 short-time work by a third. Without

further lockdown (“No Policy Change”), GDP should rise by 4.5% in 2021

grow, with a third lockdown of 2.5%. In particular the

Winter tourism is slowing down due to persistent travel warnings in the

upcoming season severely limited or canceled. First

in the warmer season and with the vaccination of the population

can view social and economic activities

normalize again. In any case, unemployment will remain in 2022

above pre-crisis levels.

“Due to persistent travel warnings, the catering industry will

and the hotel industry – the sectors with the highest losses to date – only

slowly recover. They would be special from a third lockdown

affected “, says the author of the current WIFO forecast Stefan Schiman.

The economic performance in Austria fell sharply in 2020. The

However, at 7.3% (forecast), the decline in GDP was less severe than

the circumstances of the last few weeks – the lockdown since the beginning

November in varying intensity – one might assume. In its

Forecast from the beginning of October, WIFO was already expecting a decline

by 6.8%. The relatively low forecast revision for 2020 has in

Two main causes:

* The recovery in summer was stronger than expected and was

measured by the depth of the previous break-in, including in

international comparison above average. The powerful rebound

was next to the generous relaxation of restriction measures

the COVID-19 pandemic also affects the expansionary economic policy

attributed to the household income and hence

consumer demand stabilized, as well as the rapid recovery of the

World trade, of which the foreign trade and subsequently the

Industrial production and investments benefited.

* The solid development of world trade also explains why the

Economy less from the second lockdown since November 2020

is affected than by the first. The international supply chains

were maintained, factories not closed and

supply-side production barriers in industry avoided. The

second lockdown mainly affects the

Service industries and therefore has lower

macroeconomic effects as the first.

Overview 1: Main results of the forecast – scenario “No Policy

Change “- on the [WIFO-Website]

(https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/66712)

Under the current framework conditions, the mean value of the

Forecast interval – contrary to the usual assumption – not that

Value with the highest probability of occurrence.

Rather, a bimodal forecast interval appears plausible, that is

a range with two likely outcomes: Either

the health policy framework conditions remain unchanged (“No.

Policy Change “), and in the first quarter of 2021 there will be a recovery from the

current lockdown. Or there will be another lockdown in the first quarter

imposed, so that a rebound will not set in until the second quarter, but

is relatively stronger:

* In the “Third Lockdown” scenario, there is a full lockdown

of four weeks from the end of January 2021 and one subsequent

partial lockdown until the end of March 2021 with still closed

Restaurants and hotels. This would result in GDP in the I.

Further decrease in the quarter of 2021, and the economic recovery would take off

delay. With the closure of the trade would be availment

of COVID-19 short-time working will increase again during the sudden end of the

Winter tourism season, especially seasonal unemployment

would temporarily increase.

* In the “No Policy Change” scenario without a third lockdown, the I.

A level jump in economic output can be expected in the first quarter of 2021, since

Companies that had to close for several weeks at the end of 2020 are back

would be active. On the one hand, this affects the retail sector, albeit

Some catch-up purchases are made before Christmas, on the other hand

gastronomy and, to a lesser extent, accommodation.

Accommodation companies would only lose a lot of value added

Compensate slowly, as travel warnings from important countries of origin

foreign guests from one up to and including February 2021

To hold vacation in Austria. The rebound would therefore decrease

the second lockdown will be weaker overall than after the

first or any third.

In the course of 2021, the rising ones are likely to be the first

Outside temperatures and in the second half of the year at the latest

Vaccination of the population again more social and thus

allow economic activity to return to normal

Enable social behavior and thus support the economic recovery.

On the basis of this assumption, for 2021 in the “No Policy Change” scenario

a GDP growth rate of 4.5% and in the “Third Lockdown” scenario

forecast of 2.5%. The loss of added value caused by the crisis

will not be compensated in both scenarios until 2022. The

Unemployment rate, which in 2020 despite wide utilization of the

COVID-19 short-time work rose by 2.5 percentage points to 9.9%, will be in 2021

decrease to 9.3% in both scenarios. The budget deficit is likely to be

around 10% of GDP in 2021 to around 5.5% (“No Policy Change” scenario)

and 6.2% (“Third Lockdown” scenario) decrease.

For definitions see [“Methodische Hinweise und Kurzglossar”]

(https://www.ots.at/redirect/wifo6)

Inquiry note:

Please send any queries to Stefan Schiman, MSc, Tel. (1) 798 26 01 – 234, stefan.schiman@wifo.ac.at by 3 p.m. on Friday, December 18, 2020

Digital press kit: http://www.ots.at/pressemappe/235/aom

*** OTS ORIGINAL TEXT PRESS RELEASE, EXCLUSIVELY

SUBSTANTIAL RESPONSIBILITY OF THE SENDER – WWW.OTS.AT ***

OTS0090 2020-12-18 / 10: 30



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