These are complicated times for the human race. Since World War II, humanity has faced and overcome great challenges. However, until now we have not had to defeat an enemy as important as the Coronavirus. A pandemic that has led experts to pay attention to an old generational theory of the 20th century, which seems to warn of a catastrophe. Therefore, today we analyze whether the price of Bitcoin can benefit from the “Fourth Turn”.
Neil Howe’s Theory: The Fourth Turn
Cyclical theories in historical discipline have their appeal. After all, the idea that we can find patterns in human history is comforting. Well, it would allow us to escape the apparent anarchy that governs human events, and begin to predict, and theoretically consciously control, our destiny.
And in that sense, the theory elaborated by Neil Howe and William Strauss in their book “Generations”, would not be novel for presenting cycles in the development of human history, but for the way they do it. Since for Howe and Strauss, history, and especially American history, is structured based on generational “twists”.
Each of these turns would last between 20 and 23 years, and would be part of larger cycles of 80 years. Which end in a crisis that rethinks the very foundations of society, creating new institutional and relationship dynamics that change the national community forever.
These cycles begin with a strengthening of collectivist tendencies, during which politics is oriented towards increasing the role of the State. And they culminate in an individualistic emphasis, and therefore of anomie and social separation within the community.
The Coronavirus crisis and the Fourth Turn
According to this theory, we would currently be in the midst of the final crisis of this 80-year cycle. Which would have started with the “silent generation” that was born between the Great Depression and the Second World War. To continue the period of cultural revolution led by the Baby Boomers in the Second Giro. Until reaching the individualistic emphasis placed on society by Generation X, born between 1961 and 1981.
This cycle would have worn out, until it reached the current crisis that, for Howe, began with the Great Recession of 2008, and would be entering its peak during the Coronavirus. Being the responsibility of the Millennial generation born in the 1980s, to be in charge not only of facing the pandemic, but of restructuring society once the same happens. Just as it happened after the American Civil War in 1860 and the Great Depression of 1929, both ends of 80-year cycles.
“The crisis of confinement due to the pandemic coincides perfectly with the beginning of the climax of this era (…) The Fourth Giro is a period of political and social crisis when we reinvent ourselves civically and are reborn as a national community″. Howe said in an interview with the BBC.
How important is this to Bitcoin?
Now, although we can understand that it is the Fourth Giro, it remains to be clarified what its influence is on Bitcoin. And in this case, it is double. Well, first of all, during the crisis the importance of cryptocurrencies like BTC is increased.
And it is that, in times of political, economic, social and even health uncertainty such as those we live in today. It is normal for a population in trouble to turn to alternatives to protect the value of their capital. Which are not at the mercy of the governments of any country in the world. Something that we can also see happening with the increase in interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin, buying large amounts through the firm Grayscale.
But more important still is the role that Bitcoin can play after the Coronavirus crisis. Because the truth is that, once the pandemic ends and there is a cure for Covid-19, the consequences of the disease will be profound and will affect all of society. As actions like the desperate printing of billions of dollars begin to have real consequences for the economy.
In that new post-Coronavirus world, Bitcoin will be more valuable than ever. Well, when dozens of large governments worldwide lose their credibility in the face of the terrible handling of the pandemic. Alternative assets such as BTC will serve as replacements for those suspicious and disappointed companies. Thus creating two trends from which, in the midst of the “Fourth Turn” crisis, the price of Bitcoin can benefit.