The results in the US presidential elections will be decisive for the future of Bitcoin (BTC). Preliminary data shared by Messari CEO Ryan Selkis indicates that the election will be close.
Now, Bitcoin, opened the election day in the United States with a jump of 1.85%, which returned its price to the level of 13,700 dollars. The leading cryptocurrency will go through a day or perhaps several, fraught with tension due to the elections. And, experts believe that it would not be strange to see a new annual high.
Specialists point to resistance at $ 13,800 for now. In case of exceeding it, BTC has a serious chance of testing the new level. Although the electoral uncertainty will probably generate rebounds based on some unusual event.
As for the future of the White House, the consequences in the market will not be seen quickly (and neither will the results of the election). Multiple referents of the ecosystem have hinted that a defeat of President Trump would take the price of BTC to higher levels. Due to the increased risk in the financial system.
For its part, Biden’s victory could prompt investors to rush to pour their funds into emerging markets. Taking advantage of the last weeks before an administration that could be characterized by its restrictions and taxes.
What do the presidential candidates think of BTC and cryptocurrencies?
Trump and Biden’s views on the market’s top cryptocurrency contrast significantly. For the US president, Bitcoin is not money. Furthermore, it would be an unregulated asset that is based on “the air.”
“I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on air. Unregulated crypto assets can facilitate illegal behavior, including drug trafficking and other illegal activities, ”Trump posted on Twitter on July 11, 2019.
On the other side of the coin is the position that Biden has shown, not just as a presidential candidate. If not also as vice president in office during the two presidential terms of Barack Obama between 2009 and 2017.
Unlike Trump, Biden has not directly questioned Bitcoin. In fact, in July of this year, and after the massive Twitter hack in which a scam to steal BTC was promoted, the presidential candidate confessed that he does not own any Bitcoin. Through Twitter he indicated the following:
“I don’t have Bitcoin and I will never ask you to send me any. But if you want to contribute to help Donald Trump be a president of a mandate, you can do it here, “wrote Biden on the social network without criticizing the cryptocurrency or questioning other projects in development.
Bitcoin in the short term
Now, the determining factor for Bitcoin of the election outcome would apparently be the approval of a stimulus package. After the crypto market crash in March, the approval of measures to combat the crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic was important for Bitcoin’s subsequent performance.
In the short term, BTC absorbed a large portion of the stimulus approved at the time. At least in terms of adoption, BTC establishes itself as a safe haven for many companies seeking refuge from inflationary measures from the US Federal Reserve.
According to senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, adoption is one of the key drivers for Bitcoin. By increasing adoption, the cryptocurrency has managed to decouple from the traditional market and reduce its volatility by acting as a digital version of gold.
In fact, the creator of the Stock to Flow model for Bitcoin, PlanB, has responded positively to the news of a possible approval of a new stimulus package. Something that seems to be imminent with any of the current candidates for the presidency.
McGlone has also indicated that the rise of Bitcoin futures has served as a means of decoupling from the traditional market. In that sense, the firm Skew has indicated that the Bitcoin futures in the main exchanges have a movement involved due to the elections.
Fertile ground for Bitcoin?
For its part, the Flood trader has been very bullish. Predicting a break in price above $ 13,800 Flood said that Bitcoin is the best asset to trade currently. He added that Bitcoin will remain above the referred level, therefore, “I am not looking for a short position.”
In that sense, former Goldman Sachs employee Raoul Pal has done an analysis on the risk of the elections for Bitcoin. Being optimistic about the future of the cryptocurrency, Pal believes that the next few days will be “of chaos”, but that the result will be positive for the market later:
In the next 48 hours of chaos, the risk is potentially the opposite (nothing to do with who wins). Everyone is ALL in inflation … The opposite in me is suggesting that if everyone expects the same result, then the chances of that result coming out as expected are less. Concluded.